The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 marked a major turning point in post-Cold War international relations. It has cast doubt on the rule of law, revived power dynamics, and questioned the global dominance of the United States and Western democracies, along with their values. 2024 will be a critical year for Ukraine, NATO, and the future of European defence.
Following the hopes of 2023, Ukraine now finds itself in a critical situation, facing mounting pressure from the Russian army, which has grown significantly stronger over the past year. The country lacks mobilisable reserves and resources, particularly in artillery ammunition and ground-to-air defence.
Adding to the complexity, the United States, Ukraine’s main military supporter, abruptly halted assistance due to congressional blocking, with no guarantee of resuming deliveries in the foreseeable future.
European countries, which had ceased to believe that war was possible in Europe, have been significantly weakened militarily by 30 years of irresponsible disarmament policies, and now struggle to compensate for a potential American failure in Ukraine. Even more concerning is that they perceive the American security guarantee within NATO, the cornerstone of their defence, as potentially jeopardised by statements made by Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the upcoming American presidential election. As a result, the two axioms on which their defence was based have been invalidated. Therefore, European countries face two major short-term challenges: the need to potentially independently support the Ukrainian army, and the need to redefine their joint defence strategy should NATO falter.
Beyond the controversies sparked by the French President’s statement regarding the possibility, which has not been ruled out, of sending “troops” to Ukraine, supporting countries must align their actions with their declarations. While refraining from bringing the war onto Russian soil, the objective stated by the 50-nation “Ramstein” group from the outset of the Russian invasion has been the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the borders recognised by the international community, including Russia, in 1991. If “Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose”, then the support provided to Ukrainians by Europeans, in the event of American abstention, should ensure Ukraine maintains at least equal military strength with Russia, and ideally, even surpasses it to push Russian forces back into their own territory. Russia’s defence budget for 2024 totals approximately €109 billion, while Ukraine’s stands at €47 billion. This underscores the significant effort needed from supporting countries to rebalance the power dynamics in the long term.
Given the time constraints imposed by the situation on the ground, it is crucial for Ukraine and its allies to engage in concerted strategic planning to establish qualitative and quantitative priorities for European military assistance. In the upcoming weeks and months, the primary focus should be on rebalancing power dynamics, particularly in artillery and anti-aircraft fire support, to enable Ukraine to bolster its defensive capabilities and to halt any further territorial advances by the Russian army. This strategy aims to sustain Ukraine until additional reinforcements in manpower and materiel allow it to go back on the offensive.
To achieve this goal, immediate European support is paramount. While six countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, have already signed bilateral agreements with Ukraine, signalling progress, effective coordination at the European level is imperative. Ukraine will not be able to manage 10, 15 or 20 bilateral agreements with European countries separately. The aim of the Paris meeting on February 25, 2024, attended by nearly all European and North American heads of state or their representatives, was to outline immediate actions, such as munitions delivery, cyber defence, mine clearance, deployment of deep strike missiles, and protection of the border with Belarus.
It is clear that any form of self-censorship or red lines, such as “we will never send any troops to Ukraine to prevent escalation,” only emboldens Russia. The responsibility for any escalation rests solely with Russia, whose aggression is unjustified and primarily relies on terror tactics. This terror targets Western public opinion through nuclear threats, Ukrainian civilians through relentless bombardment of civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian fighters through sustained and intense attacks. Furthermore, it extends to the Russian population through the persecution of dissenters and relentless propaganda promoting the war. Succumbing to this terror is tantamount to preparing for Ukraine’s defeat. Therefore, it is imperative to provide the public with realistic, well-documented information regarding the stakes in the war in Ukraine and Russia’s multifaceted, hybrid attacks on our nations, while simultaneously implementing measures to support Ukraine.
Firstly, Russia’s nuclear threat must be played down. As long as the existence of the Russian state is not threatened, the Kremlin despot and his henchmen know full well that any recourse to nuclear weapons would lead to the annihilation of Moscow, St Petersburg and Russia, and since they are not suicidal, this threat is merely blackmail that must not be yielded to. China and India have clearly warned Vladimir Putin on this point.
It is crucial to swiftly counter the terror inflicted upon Ukrainian civilians by deploying an effective anti-missile shield over Ukrainian skies and developing the capacity to neutralise Russian aircraft engaged in bombing raids in Ukrainian airspace over the conflict zone or from Russia.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian firepower, including its deep strike capacity, requires substantial reinforcement.
Additionally, it is imperative to actively pursue through all possible channels a counter-propaganda strategy aimed at the Russian population, countering the deceitful narratives propagated by the Russian dictator.
Finally, a prompt analysis of the potential impact of a Donald Trump presidency on the future of European defence is imperative to prevent any detrimental effects on European unity and the very existence of the EU. It is now crucial for Europeans to collaborate in devising a collective strategy to address potential military threats, especially those originating from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, should they need to act independently.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine revealed not only the shortcomings of European defence, but also new forms of warfare. In the two years since its outbreak, the war in Ukraine has already led to significant changes in the way European countries defend themselves, and has prompted them to adopt a forward-looking approach to jointly prepare for the future.
Retired Lt. Gen. Jean Paul Perruche
March 2024
Translation by IT students
