THE EU’S CURRENT POSITION FOLLOWING RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE

The Treaty of Westphalia determined basic principles of the relationships between
European states which have lasted for centuries. The conclusion of the invasion –
whatever it may be, whenever it comes – could be similarly epoch-making. What the EU
thinks and does then will be significant, even though currently unthought. This brief article
explores starting points.

RUSSIAN MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ARCTIC

Emphasising the importance of the Arctic region for Russia, just before the beginning of the presidency of the Arctic Council in 2021 (suspended following invasion of Ukraine), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “It has been absolutely clear to everyone for a long time that this is our territory, this is our land”

Une Ostpolitik renouvelée? Visions depuis l’Allemagne et la France

Faut-il à nouveau une Ostpolitik (une politique orientale) ? En Allemagne, certains plaident en ce sens, ainsi un ancien dirigeant politique issu de la SPD, Matthias Platzeck, dans un livre paru en 2020. Nombreux sont cependant ceux critiquant l’appel du Président français à un dialogue stratégique avec la Russie. Le débat est ouvert. L’université de Bonn et l’Institut français ont organisé en novembre 2020 une table ronde sur ce sujet : « Avons-nous besoin d’une Ostpolitik 2.0 ? Visions depuis l’Allemagne et la France ». Il est intéressant d’envisager ces deux visions.

Russia’s Protective Dome along the Northern Sea Route

Russian military bases north of Arctic Circle and along a 20,000-kilometer coastline are of ever increasing importance, defending, controlling and denying the Northern Sea Route which is not just a “Polar Silk Road” but also a vital lane of communication to the Russian Pacific Fleet at Vladivostok. Significant investment in these strategic assets is exemplified by the bringing back into service and upgrading of facilities abandoned a quarter of a century ago on the collapse of the Soviet Union. They come within the Unified Strategic Command based in Arkhangelsk. The bases data below is derived from a number of public sources.

Technology and Weapons Systems Developments supporting Russia’s 3-ocean Protective Dome for the new “Polar Silk Road”

Arkitka is the first of a new class of Russian nuclear icebreakers. She’s designed to smash through Arctic ice up to 3 metres thick or more. But her long-delayed maiden voyage followed on a series of failed trials – and was marred by an inability to find thick enough ice to demonstrate her full potential, and equipment failures.